Tentative Draft Agenda

Monday, 13 September 2004

Welcome to the workshop and the Galapagos by representatives from Ecuador, Galapagos National Park, Charles Darwin Research Foundation (CDRF), Puerto Ayora, and the sponsoring agencies.

Sponsoring agencies: NCAR, CIIFEN, NSF,CDRF, WMO, ISDR, and UNESCO/IOC.

9:30am - 10:00am

Why We Are Here:

• To identify the value of linking between:
  • Early warning and sustainable development
  • Disaster response and development
  • El Niño and climate-related hazards (e.g., teleconnections)
  • Identify El Niño information uses for development
  • Early warning effectiveness: pronouncements vs. actions
  • The Asian side of the Pacific and the Western Hemisphere
  • Identify high-risk sectors and segments of society
  • To share experiences (including lessons identified at other locations and times)

Something to think about:
"I said I wasn't clever. I was just noticing how things were, and that wasn't clever. That was just being observant. Being clever was when you looked at how things are and used the evidence to work out something new." (Mark Haddon, 2002)

10:00am - 10:30am

Linking Application to Science: Sustainable development (http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev)
Indicators of sustainability vary:
--From definition to definition
--From country to country
--From sector to sector
--From culture to culture
--From time to time

Linking Science to Application: Why sustainability science? (http://www.earthethics.com/Sustainability%20Science.htm)
--Science needed a "fundamentally different approach" if the goal of sustainability was to be achieved.
--Modern science could be described as "islands of understanding in oceans of ignorance." Many environmental problems were the "direct result of applying narrow specialized knowledge to complex systems."
--Instead we need to work backwards from undesirable outcomes to identify pathways to avoid these problems.
--"Scientists and practitioners have to work together to produce trustworthy knowledge that combines scientific excellence with social relevance."
(Prof. Ian Lowe, Australia, interview 27 June 01, Science in the News)

10:30am - 11:00am — BREAK

11:00am - 12:15pm

ENSO Science: El Niño & La Niña:
What is El Niño?
What are the indicators?
How reliable is forecasting?
How credible are the models?

Whose responsibility is it for an overarching ENSO Early Warning System? For the science, for the forecasts, for communication among components, for responses, for oversight/review, for accountability?

12:15pm - 2:00pm — LUNCH

2:00pm - 2:45pm

ENSO-Related Hotspots in the Pacific Region:
What constitutes a "hotspot" in the Pacific?
(hot, hotter, hottest spots)

Hotspots can be singular or a combination of political, economic, environmental, health, demographic, meteorological, and cultural factors, among others (e.g., complex environmental crises).

2:45pm - 3:45pm

Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities & Constraints (SWOC) of El Niño forecasts as early warnings for sustainable development

Participants divide into two groups for the SWOC discussions:
Group A: Suggest strengths and weaknesses
Group B: Identify opportunities and constraints

3:45pm - 4:00pm — BREAK

4:00pm - 4:45pm

Plenary discussion:
The SWOC assessment for El Niño knowledge and forecasts as early warning for sustainable development in the Pacific region (Groups A and B)

 

Tuesday, 14 September

8:30am - 9:15am

El Niño Forecast Cascade: Hazards
--What are the hazards of concern? How similar are they from country to country? From East and Southeast Asia to South, Central, and North America?
--How does El Niño generate or influence them (positively or negatively)?
--First-order and second-order impacts

9:15am - 10:00am

El Niño Forecast Cascade: Health
--Health and health-related concerns in the Pacific region
--The role of El Niño knowledge and forecasts in or influence on health early warnings in the short and long term

10:00am - 10:45am

El Niño Forecast Cascade: Agriculture
--The use of El Niño "climatology" and forecasts in agriculture and range management

10:45 - 11:15am — BREAK

11:15am - 12:00pm

El Niño Forecast Cascade: Fisheries
--The impacts of El Niño on fish populations and on fishing sectors
--The use of El Niño knowledge and forecasts to foster sustainable development processes

12:00pm - 12:30pm

World Conference on Disaster Reduction (WCDR) 2005
--Overview of the goals of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction (to be held January 2005 in Kobe, Japan)
--Potential input to the Plan of Action of the WCDR

12:30pm — LUNCH

Free afternoon

5:30pm - 7:00pm

Galapagos Public Roundtable:
El Niño's impacts on flora and fauna in the Galapagos
Convener: Mayor Alfredo Ortiz Cobos (mayor of Isla Santa Cruz)

 

Wednesday, 15 September

8:30am - 9:15am

Linking Disaster Reduction and Development Policies
The influences of disaster responses on:
--Mid-term development prospects
--Sustainable development
--Identifying good practices and gaps to reduce El Niño-related impacts

9:15 - 10:00am

Lessons to Be Learned... From Lessons Already Learned
--What might Pacific Rim countries and islands learn from other regions that have coped with El Niño (forecasts, impacts, and responses)?
--Does the Once Burned, Twice Shy report supply any usable lessons? (NCAR/UNEP/UNU/WMO)
www.esig.ucar.edu/un

10:00am - 10:30am — BREAK

10:30am - 11:15am

Media and Early Warnings: For quick-onset and creeping environmental changes
--Role of the media in El Niño Early Warning in the region (Should the media be expected to educate the public and policy makers about El Niño's impacts in a region?)
--Reporting on El Niño (ad hoc intermittent, or sustained reporting on the El Niño phenomenon)
--What are the sources of the warnings? Which ones are to be believed and acted upon?

11:15am - 12:00pm

Mid-Workshop Review
--Where have we been?
--Where are we?
--Where are we going?

12:00pm - 2:00pm — LUNCH

2:00pm - 2:45pm

Vulnerability and Resilience: Underlying aspects of
--Vulnerability (political, economic, cultural, stability, environmental)
--Resilience (Is resilience the opposite of vulnerability? Is the notion of resilience useful in El Niño impacts studies?)

2:45pm - 3:30pm

From Hurricane Fifi to Hurricane Mitch: An Example of Climate Affairs
From hurricane to hurricane:
--Who to help?
--when to help?
--How to help?
--Why help?
What issues does this case study raise?

3:30pm - 4:00pm — BREAK

4:00pm - 4:45pm

Climate Change and the Pacific Rim
Projected climate change impacts in the Pacific Rim countries and islands
--Extreme events (droughts, floods, fires, infectious diseases and other health effects, etc.)
--Sea level rise (island nations, non-island low-lying coastal rural and urban areas)

 

Thursday, 16 September

8:30am - 9:00am

Right-Sizing El Niño Early Warnings
What is the right scope for early warnings related to El Niño in the Pacific Basin?
--Geographical scope (national, regional, hemispheric, global)
--Functional scope (sectoral)

9:00am - 9:45am

SWOC Groups on Prospects of Linking across the Pacific
Participants divide into two groups:
--Group A: suggests strengths and weaknesses
--Group B: Identify opportunities and constraints

9:45 - 10:30am

Linking across the Pacific: Is the Pacific Ocean a barrier or a bridge?
--Discussion of the SWOC for linking (early warning systems, sustainable development, Asia and the Western Hemisphere)
--Problems and prospects of linking across the Pacific (Is it worth the effort? Words vs. actions)

Something else to think about: "He said that it was difficult to become an astronaut. I said I knew ... But I said that you could still want something that is very unlikely to happen." (Mark Haddon, 2002)

10:30am - 11:00am — BREAK

11:00am - 12:15pm

Where Should We Go from Here?
Next Steps? (Report in English and Spanish)
ENSO/EWS/Sustainable Science-related research and application needs of Pacific Rim countries and islands

ADJOURN

The Environmental and Societal Impacts Group is part of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.