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8:30 - 9:15
Opening of
meeting, Columbia University comments
Mickey and Kelly: why are we here?
9:15 - 9:45
Round-the-table
introductions
9:45 - 10:45
- Flashpoints can be identified
geographically (by region), functionally (climate anomaly, deforestation,
desertification, etc.), or societally (demographics, socioeconomic
conditions)
- Defining Flashpoints:
Putting Flashpoints in context: Hotspots, risk zones, disaster early
warning, instability, etc.
What do we mean by "climate" and "climate-related"?
10:45 - 11:15
Break
11:15 - 12:00
Examples of
flashpoints (past): national and transboundary flashpoints; flashpoint
as event and as process. Does this distinction shed any light on how
the notion is used in early warning?; Quick onset vs. slow onset?
Examples from Africa, Asia, North America, Latin America, other.
12:00 -1:30
Lunch Break
1:30 - 2:15
What interests
do you/your research or your organization have in flashpoints, hotspots,
early warning, surprises?
2:15 - 2:45
Open discussion:
Vulnerability, Resilience, Instability, Sustainability, Adaptation,
Mitigation, Prevention, Uncertainty, and Surprise.
2:45 - 3:15
Break
3:15 - 4:00
EWSs: early
warning of events and early warnings of impacts
Introduction the notion of "foreseeability"
4:00 - 5:00
What El Nino
is and what it does. How good are the ENSO forecasts?
ENSO's extremes and early warning of climate-related flashpoints
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8:45 - 9:45
Operationalizing
the notion of flashpoints: apply it to climate-related instability,
as well as conflicts and disasters; instability in economy, policy,
culture, etc.). Which way to go: There are at least 2 basic ways to
deal with identifying climate and climate-related flashpoints:
(1) Identify
conflict-prone situations or locations and see if and how climate-related
impacts might influence them, and
(2) Identify
climate-sensitive areas and identify other societal and environmental
stressors. What does each approach provide and what does it not provide
to those concerned about identifying flashpoints?
9:45 - 10:30
Discuss other
applications of flashpoints, hotspots (e.g., biodiversity, water,
decision-making, Great Lakes).
10:30 - 11:00
Break
11:00 - 11:45
Globalization
of Events/Disasters/Hazards Perceptions: What made Mitch, Venezuela
and Mozambique so unique compared to other disasters? Role of: media,
humanitarian community, governments?
11:45 - 12:30
Future flashpoints:
scenarios and speculation.
Hotspots and flashpoint analogues: Is there an Aral Sea in your country's
future?
Cuba's Garagua nuclear facility;
sea level rise in Louisiana;
sea level decline in the Great Lakes;
El Nino and Zimbabwe;
Afghan drought and refugees in Pakistan, etc.
12:30 - 1:15
Lunch break
1:15 - 2:15
To what extent
can "disaster diplomacy" defuse potential flashpoints?
Does the
notion of flashpoints add any value to early warning for climate-related
problems: droughts, floods, fires, frost, infectious disease outbreaks?
Does the notion have any value for identifying instabilities?
2:15 - 3:00
Where do we
go from here?
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