Vietnam Country Case Study:
Impacts and Responses to the 1997-98 El Niño Event
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Executive Summary
Because of its geographical setting, Vietnam has had a long history of coping with weather- and climate-related hazards such as severe storms, floods and droughts. As a result, it has developed a comprehensive system of disaster management that, although constrained by limited resources and other factors, provides a high level of protection. This system continues to evolve.
Although scientific research has been conducted on the impact of El Niño in Vietnam over the past two decades, it has only been since the 1997-98 El Niño event that serious scientific interest in the subject has developed. It is now known that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon has a substantial effect on the characteristics (frequency, intensity, duration) of certain natural hazards that affect Vietnam.
El Niño is clearly recognized as a factor that should be considered in disaster management by the Vietnamese Government. This recognition largely resulted from El Niño predictions in early 1997 that were received by the Government. It also resulted from the emergence of impacts in Vietnam later that year which was accompanied by instructions issued by the Prime Minister's Office to relevant authorities to prepare a report on El Niño and La Niña and Vietnam. While this acted to raise official awareness of the issue, the official response to the 1997-98 El Niño event was through the existing disaster management system. In the period 1999-2000, the Government organized an independent study on the phenomenon, with the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology as the executive agency. The Hydro-Meteorology Service has commissioned sectoral studies, and Vietnam has proposed that national studies be undertaken by various international research programs. Public awareness of El Niño is high as a result of the publicity given to the 1997-98 event by the mass media. The first popular ENSO document was released by the Hydro-Meteorology Service and printed by the Science and Technology Publishing House in the year 2000, as a result of the 1997-98 event.
The broad effect of El Niño on the climate of Vietnam is established, but detailed impacts require more research. In general terms, the main effects on the seasonal climate of Vietnam are that, during El Niño years, cloud cover is decreased and rainfall levels are lowered; temperatures increase as do radiation and evaporation. The impact is generally most evident during the winter half-year, with effects usually developing towards the fall of the year in which the El Niño warming in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean becomes evident. Though affecting the whole country, the effects are clearest in the south of Vietnam and parts of the central region. The frequency and other characteristics of the tropical cyclones that make landfall on the Vietnamese coast are strongly affected by El Niño. Generally, fewer, but more intense, storms are experienced during El Niño years and frequencies are highest during the earlier part of the cyclone season. There is a suggestion that storms that form or develop close to the Vietnamese coast may be more frequent in El Niño years. These storms are difficult to predict and, therefore, to respond to effectively.
The 1997-98 El Niño event had a major impact on social and economic well-being: drought, water supply, health and storm impacts were the most notable effects. Drought concentrated in 1998 and caused serious impacts, especially for forestry and industrial farming. The total economic loss due to the drought in 1997-98 was estimated at 5,000 billion Vietnamese Dong (VND). Due to the lack of water caused by low rainfall and high evaporation rates, the area of salty land (i.e., salt water intrusion) increased rapidly in the Mekong Delta. Forest fire was also a serious consequence. Water supply for the 1997-98 winter crop had many difficulties. At the reservoirs of the Hoa Binh, Tri An, and Thac Ba hydro-electricity plants, the water level decreased to alarming levels, thereby causing these plants to reduce power production. Water supply in Hanoi, stressed in normal times became a more serious problem in the first months of summer 1998. Dengue fever spread, starting in the South in 1997. In 1998, the disease came up to the coastal zone of Central Vietnam and the North. The peak occurred in the summer/fall of 1998. The impact of typhoon Linda, although it cannot be reliably attributed to El Niño, resulted in 4,502 people dead or missing. This was the highest number of losses caused by a typhoon in decades. There were 440,000 hectares of paddy land lost, of which 330,000 hectares were seriously damaged. 133,000 houses were also seriously damaged. The total loss reached thousands of billion-VND.
The main component of disaster management in Vietnam is the system for protection against severe storms, floods and other natural hazards. This system has four main strengths. First, it represents the culmination of a centuries-long period of learning through experience. Second, the system is the result of an evolving pact between the elite, the government, and the people of Vietnam and has widespread support and commitment. Third, the battle against "invasion" by a tropical cyclone is as ingrained in the Vietnamese psyche as is the struggle against human invaders. Finally, the system's structure, although complex, ensures that all levels and sectors of the government's administration and, indeed, much of Vietnamese society are firmly linked into the process. It purposely contains a degree of duplication or redundancy, in order to increase the chances that information will be conveyed in the event of failure of any one channel. It also has some weaknesses related to: resource limitations; lack of cooperation and management efficiency; communications problems; cultural difficulties; scale issues; limited scientific and technical understanding; lapses and limitations in public awareness; and aggravating factors such as environmental degradation. Nevertheless, the system provides a high level of protection to the Vietnamese population.
The existing disaster management system could be strengthened by the availability of reliable, detailed and trustworthy El Niño forecasts that would provide the basis for, among other things, the more effective allocation of resources. The current system provides a strong basis for the communication of warning information to all sectors of society. If such forecasts were to be used, it would be necessary: to improve understanding of the sectoral impacts of El Niño; to increase awareness among relevant authorities and improve coordination and resources; to identify forecast users needs; and to cultivate a change in attitude in support of a pro-active response. Other obstacles to the effective working of Vietnam's disaster management system, which encompasses responses to El Niño-spawned extreme events, such as resource constraints, must be considered.
Lessons Learned
- There is a need for El Niño-related impact studies on regions, institutions, disaster management procedures, and economic sectors of society.
- El Niño-related impact studies should be undertaken between El Niño events and not during them.
- El Niño tends to exacerbate existing hazards and disasters that the Vietnamese society has had to cope with for centuries: droughts, floods, fires, severe storms and typhoon landfall.
- People not only need better El Niño forecasts (more detail at the local level and more accuracy) but they also need better forecasts of El Niño's impacts.
- Researchers must identify the needs of specific users in order to improve the effectiveness of early warning.
- It is important for an effective response to an El Niño forecast that the highest levels of government consider El Niño a problem and are will to take actions based on the forecast in a pro-active way.
- It is not possible to be absolutely confident in attributing a particular weather phenomenon or anomaly to the occurrence of an El Niño. The same is true for attributing societal impacts.
- A mechanism that turns awareness into effective public action is needed.
- There is a need to review in more detail what the El Niño-related climate impacts were during the 1997-98 El Niño event.
- Capacity building is needed in climate impacts assessment and in climate-related disaster planning.
- While there are many government agencies in the country dealing with some aspect of El Niño, there is a need for improved efficiency in transmitting warnings and forecasts throughout the government.
- Governments need to prioritize the allocation of resources in the planning stage for El Niño-related impacts, given the scarcity of resources in many developing countries.
- There is a need for capacity building in the area of El Niño forecast use.
- There is a need to convince the government at the highest level of the importance to society of El Niño research, especially about teleconnections (i.e., attributions) and impacts on environment and society.
