Kenya Country Case Study:
Impacts and Responses to the 1997-98 El Niño Event
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Executive Summary
This project was carried out for Kenya, which lies between latitudes 5° North and 5° South and between longitudes 34° and 42° East on the eastern side of the African continent. Kenya has a land area of about 569,137 km2. It has a great diversity of landforms ranging from glaciated mountain peaks with permanent snow cover, through a flight of plateaus to the coastal plain. The country is split by the Great Rift valley into the Western part which slopes down into Lake Victoria from the Mau ranges and Mt. Elgon (4,300 m) and the Eastern part which is dominated by Mt. Kenya and the Aberdare mountain ranges that rise to altitudes of 5,200m and 4,000m, respectively.
The socio-economic problems experienced by Kenyans are varied including those arising from inequitable patterns of land ownership, a high population growth rate, rural-urban migration of the population, poorly planned urbanization, deforestation, a low level of literacy, and high levels of unemployment. Kenya's population growth rate is still one of the highest in the world at 2.6 %. This implies that the economy of the country has to support a large and growing number of young people. This has also created rural-urban migration that over-stretches the resources in the urban areas leading to a decrease in the standards of land management, infrastructure, water, sanitation and municipal services. The result has been a steady decline of health and environmental standards as well as an increased vulnerability to human-made and natural disasters. Due to the population growth, there has been a noticeable rural-rural migration to the arid and semiarid land areas, affecting the ecosystems of these regions and rendering them more vulnerable to disasters such as drought and environmental degradation.
The above problems are coupled with high levels of poverty prevalent in all sections of the Kenyan society. According to a 1994 welfare monitoring survey, 48% of the rural population are food-poor, while 47% of the rural population and 29% of the urban population were identified as absolutely poor. A large number of the poor are living by either subsistence agriculture or employment in the urban informal sector. The recent El Niño (1997-1998) and the heavy rains of 1999 showed that those most affected by these natural occurrences are the poorer sectors of the population living in slums and squatting along flood and landslide areas. Poverty also seriously affects their resilience to disasters given the constant challenges for survival, which many face.
Kenya is characterized by its limited natural resources, especially water, minerals and agricultural land. This condition, coupled with the fragility of its ecosystems and vulnerability to increased pressure by human activities, raises critical environmental issues related to biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, drought, floods and water and air pollution. Forest resources and soil cover are being depleted due to the rapid increase in population and the demand for human settlements and agricultural land, grazing, sources of construction materials, food, fuel wood, essential oils and herbal medicines.
These factors make Kenyans highly vulnerable to any major disruptive activities, for example, damages caused by natural hazards such as floods and droughts. The number of deaths and injuries to both human beings and animals, damages to infrastructure, disruption of public services, and economic losses from man-made and natural hazards are on the increase and present a threat to the socio-economic development of the country.
In order to reduce the impacts of these hazards, it is necessary to put in place measures to manage the hazards before and as they occur. To do this, an early warning system must be in place to create awareness of the impending disasters and, hence, enhance preparedness. A system should also be in place to deal with the effects of an ongoing hazard. This requires the setting up of disaster mitigation and emergency response facilities. The main objective of this assessment is to review forecasts and impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño, as well as the climate-related early warning and natural disaster preparedness systems in Kenya in order to improve its ENSO coping mechanisms. Based on this assessment, the project identified research and policy needs and forms a basis for developing preliminary guidelines for future regional and national natural disaster preparedness plans for ENSO warm and cold events and their impacts. Specifically, the project is aimed at forming the basis for:
- Identifying policy needs which can then be developed or incorporated into appropriate operational disaster management and research programs. This would include, but would not be limited to, those relating to the potential yet-to-be-identified linkages between ENSO and climate change.
- Developing a preliminary set of guidelines for national and regional preparedness for ENSO's extremes.
- Designing a capacity-building program for fellowship and the training of mid-level resource and sector managers, post-graduate education, and outreach to the international academic and scientific communities.
Through an improved understanding of early warning, the project ultimately contributes to the safety and welfare of people and the environment by enhancing preparedness for the impacts of future ENSO warm and cold events.
In achieving the main objective, the project considered the impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño phenomenon on various sectors of Kenya. The responses of Kenyans to the phenomenon were also studied. In particular, the project studied the water resources, agricultural, transport, human health and the socio-economic sectors.
The short rains, which occur during the months of October to December, were extremely magnified during the 1997-98 El Niño episode. The rains, which started as normal rains in October in most parts of the country, picked up to flooding levels during the beginning of November and continued at high levels into January of the following year. They subsided slowly and ended by mid February 1998 in most parts of the country.
It was determined during the project that the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) had issued a forecast for the 1997-98 El Niño event as early as July 1997. According to the KMD, this forecast was sent to the Office of the President, Ministry of Agriculture, and the Ministry of Information, Transport and Communications, which are usually on their mailing list. The information was also sent to the Kenya Power and Lighting Company, which normally uses the monthly and seasonal rainfall forecasts for planning. This forecast was subsequently widely published through the electronic and print media. However, it was received with skepticism due to alleged earlier "wrong" forecasts from KMD. It was therefore not taken seriously, and hence no mitigation and/or emergency response procedures were put in place. In general, a sizable percentage of the Kenyan population were aware of the impending heavy rainfall in advance, but did very little to safeguard against its effects.
As the heavy rains hit the country and continued into December 1997, almost everybody realized that the warnings from KMD were real, and immediately thereafter, almost anything that happened to the water resources in the country was attributed to the El Niño. The interest in and awareness of El Niño was enhanced when its devastating impacts were seen throughout the country. The various articles and presentations in the print and electronic media created more interest and awareness on the subject. Due to its uniqueness, intensity and destructive power, the 1997-98 El Niño event was an intriguing phenomenon to many in the country, even to those involved in ENSO research. It was, therefore, not surprising that the 1997-98 El Niño was blamed for almost all the problems, that individuals, groups and the Kenyan population as a whole were facing, be they the worsening national economy, social ills and diseases, retarded national development or even domestic hardships. The resultant floods had wide-ranging positive and negative impacts on various sectors of the national economy. The sectors identified that were seriously affected were agriculture, water resources, transport, communications and health.
Water resources sector
The water resources sector was both negatively and positively affected by the 1997-98 El Niño event. The negative impacts included widespread flooding that led to the destruction of property in several sections of the country, increased soil erosion in areas with poor land use and management practices, and increased frequency of mud- and landslides, especially in the hilly areas. Other negative impacts included surface and ground water pollution, destruction of small storage earth dams, and the increased sedimentation and siltation in the rivers and streams that led to the sedimentation and siltation of the major water storage reservoirs. The general cost of these negative impacts amounted to about US$9 million. However, this sector also benefited from the excess rainfall during this period. Pollution loads were reduced through the washout effect of the rainfall, soil moisture for agricultural production was enhanced, and the water reservoirs were adequately recharged boosting the levels of the hydroelectric dams.
Agriculture sector
The agricultural sector was also negatively and positively affected by the phenomenon. The abundance of rainfall resulted in increased plant and animal diseases that affected the livestock and crop production in several regions in the country. The flooding also affected the farms through waterlogging leading to further reduction in yields, and destruction of livestock water facilities. Several cases of deaths of animals through drowning were also reported. The estimated combined loss suffered by this sector reached US$236 million.
However, in the arid and semiarid areas the rains were a welcome relief from the perennial dry situation leading to development of good pasture and the resultant improved livestock performance. Agricultural production in some areas increased due to the enhanced availability of moisture for the crops. The rains enhanced and prolonged the time of moisture availability for the biological soil and water conservation structures to take up. Tree planting and survival rates were generally increased to nearly 100 percent.
Transport and communications sector
The El Niño rains devastated the transportation sector. The accompanying floods and landslides wreaked havoc on the roads and transportation infrastructure throughout the country. Several bridges and an estimated 100,000 km of both rural and urban roads were destroyed leading to a general paralysis of the transportation system in most parts of the country. The estimated cost of these damages was about US$670 million. The aviation and shipping industries were also disrupted through the flooding of the facilities. Scheduled and chattered flights were disrupted due to poor visibility and the submergence of the navigational equipment and runways by floodwaters. The docking facilities at the shipping ports were also submerged in floodwaters making it impossible to off load merchandise from the ships. Telecommunications were severely affected by falling trees that destroyed the communication lines. The underground cable channels were also flooded, causing a disruption in services. Interruptions of electric energy supply were experienced as some equipment was destroyed by floodwaters, falling trees, and collapsing buildings. However, a positive effect of the event was experienced by the energy sector with the complete recharging of the hydroelectric dams and, hence, the enhancement of the production of electricity.
Health sector
The 1997-98 El Niño event greatly affected the health sector. Over 300,000 families were adversely affected by the phenomenon. The country's health resources were stretched beyond manageable levels. Several health facilities were physically destroyed, water sources were contaminated, and there were increases in the number of stagnant water ponds, overgrowth around homesteads and market centers, blockage and overflow of sewers and open drains, and an increase in fly breeding as a result of decomposition of refuse. These factors led to an upsurge of disease epidemics and an increase in the morbidity and mortality rates.
All of the above impacts directly or indirectly affected the socio-economic well-being of the Kenyan society. The education sector was also affected, with schools being inaccessible because of flooding which led to closures or to low attendance rates. The end-of-year examinations were disrupted. Businesses were seriously affected through the aforementioned transportation and energy disruptions. The political general elections, scheduled for the end of 1997, were affected and by the problems in the transport sector and subsequently rescheduled. The heavy rains that were experienced also interfered with social functions, such as weddings, funerals and church services, during this period.
Considering the impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño event on various sectors of Kenya, it is evident that Kenyans were not adequately prepared and had no facilities in place to cushion the adverse impacts. Although the forecast was available in July 1997, no mitigation or emergency procedures were put in place. Due to the low frequency of widespread flooding problems in the country, the Kenya government had neither a flood disaster management policy nor an institutional framework to monitor and manage flood disasters prior to the 1997-98 El Niño floods. The only disaster management institution that was in operation during the early periods of the 1997-98 El Niño floods was The National Famine Relief Program, whose mandate is almost exclusively related to the monitoring and management of the negative impacts of droughts. This program was not well equipped to manage the impacts of heavy rains. Further, an attempt by the government to mitigate the effects of the negative impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño floods was hampered by the diversity of the impacts which could not, therefore, be handled by any one government ministry in isolation.
However, after the effects of the rains began, the government acted by setting up the National Disaster Operation Center to oversee and coordinate all efforts put toward addressing the serious impacts. It also embarked on a public awareness campaign through the electronic and print media and declared the floods a national disaster. Despite the limitations of the existing economic and financial constraints, the government spent large amounts of money to purchase and transport emergency food, water treatment chemicals and medical supplies to the worst-affected communities. It also approached donor countries and agencies to help defray the costs of rehabilitation and emergency operations.
The media played an important role during the 1997-98 El Niño event by publishing, on a daily basis, stories related to the effects of the event. It raised the awareness of the public as well as that of the policy makers. The private companies responded to the emergencies by pooling their resources together and participating in the rehabilitation of the infrastructure around them. They resorted to the use of diesel-generated power in cases where there were power interruptions and hence were able to maintain some production levels.
Lessons Learned
From the devastating impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño event, several lessons were learned. The scientific community, which is involved with research on the ENSO phenomenon and rainfall characteristics in the region, has learned that the warming (or cooling) of the Indian as well as Pacific Oceans adversely affects the rainfall patterns in Kenya considerably. However, research has not as yet revealed clearly the quantitative association between ENSO's extremes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the variations in rainfall in this region. A lot of effort is, therefore, being made to understand the frequency and occurrence of extreme rainfall events, and how these are related to El Niño. Several research papers have been produced on this topic, furthering our knowledge about it and El Niño's teleconnections to Kenya. The relationship between the El Niño and the rainfall over Kenya is now relatively better understood leading to better rainfall forecasts.
The 1997-98 El Niño event hit the country at a time when the government had no plans or policies in place to deal with the associated flood and resulting health hazards. The country had neither a national plan nor a policy for responding to flood disasters that could impact negatively on national economic sectors such as agriculture, health, and infrastructure. The government has learned that such a plan or policy should be developed or added to either the National Disaster Plans or to the National Water Policy, with clear flood early warning and management mechanisms.
In addition, there are many uncoordinated efforts among different Early Warning Units in various departments and ministries such as the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), the Department of Resource Survey and Remote Sensing (DRSRS), and the Arid Lands Resource Management Project (Office of the President), among others. It has, therefore, been proposed that coordination among the noted departments and ministries be strengthened and an early warning unit be established and be well equipped to enable it to monitor the situation on the ground and collect reliable data, which would enable the ministries to respond appropriately and effectively to disasters in their economic or social sectors.
Some of the other lessons learned include the following:
- The forecast should, if possible, be for periods longer than 3 months, so that effective control measures can be put in place.
- The storm drainage systems in urban areas should be maintained and serviced regularly.
- The government should educate the public well in advance through pro-active awareness campaigns about possible El Niño-related disasters.
- The Kenya Meteorological Department's forecasts should be as accurate as possible.
- The settlement of potential disaster areas, especially those in the flood plains, should be discouraged through a clear government policy.
- In the future, planners should always incorporate climate and weather information in their planning activities.
- The government should institute a policy or plan that supports flood prevention through integrated watershed development programs in eroded mountainous regions.
- The government should also support the design and management of strategic food security reserves.
- There is need to find a viable response to future disasters through intervention by, for example, capacity building for early warning and disaster preparedness.
