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Geneva Summary Report

First Meeting of Team Leaders
WMO Building
Geneva, Switzerland
8-10 July 1999

Report of Meeting

Thursday, 8 July, morning session

Michael Glantz, Principal Investigator for the project, "Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies through Early Warning and Preparedness: The Case of the 1997-98 El Niño," opened the workshop on Thursday, 8 July 1999, at the new WMO building in Geneva, Switzerland. Glantz thanked the participants for making time available on such short notice from their busy schedules to attend the first meeting of the case study team leaders workshop. Workshop participants included the country case-study authors and, in some cases, the co-authors, and Core Advisors to the project: representatives from UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), WMO (World Meteorological Organization), IDNDR (International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction), and UNU (United Nations University).

The purpose of the workshop was to officially launch the UNEP/NCAR 19-month study, by:

• providing guidance to the country case study authors
• discussing and modifying the tentative list of research questions
• assessing how well the represented countries responded to the 1997-98 El Niño forecast in order to improve societal responses to El Niño-related hazards such as droughts, floods, fires, frost, etc.
• preparing drafts of Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) for each of the country case study authors.

Each of the Core Advisors provided a brief description of his/her organization's interests in El Niño-related activities. Zafar Adeel, UNU representative, explained that the UNU was created to serve as a "think tank" for the United Nations and provide feedback from the scientific community to academia to the UN system. He emphasized the importance of networking with research organizations and universities to focus on pressing global issues of human survival. The issues related to El Niño fit well into this framework. Glantz has been part of the UNU network for some years and has collaborated on conferences and publications from UNU. The UNU's strengths that it brings to this project are related to capacity building. He informed the participants that the UNU has a high-quality press. The UNU will collaborate with each partner in each country, and will assist with capacity building, discussion of climate affairs education programs, and the dissemination of the results of the project. Adeel emphasized that this is a very important project on a global scale.

Rudi Slooff, representing the IDNDR, discussed its decade-long program now in its final year (1999). He noted that it is crucial for IDNDR to finish with two important questions about the future: (1) where in the UN system will a new disaster reduction institution reside and how will it be organized, and (2) what is the substance of disaster reduction? The idea behind IDNDR was to stimulate concerted disaster planning efforts in the UN system with partners outside the system in order to create a "culture of prevention." He noted that, ten years later (1999), governments have seen the emergence of new kinds of disasters. He suggested also that disasters have become more severe and noted the need to come to grips with climate change (e.g., global warming), a view supported by the research findings of the IPCC and of other research efforts associated with climate change. Disasters are also more complex. There is a strong human element in the causation of natural disasters, along with an improvement in scientific understanding of what disasters are. Governments must not let people die if they can prevent it. El Niño is an important topic for the IDNDR. IDNDR has responsibility for the societal aspects of the UN's Interagency Task Force on El Niño, established in late 1997, and is meant to harmonize research on El Niño within the UN system. IDNDR co-organized, with other UN agencies such as the WMO, the first meeting of experts on El Niño in Guayaquil, Ecuador, in November 1998.

Peter Scholefield greeted the participants on behalf of Michael Coughlan, Director of the WMO's World Climate Programme. Coughlan has been very active in pursuing an improved understanding about the 1997-98 El Niño. The World Climate Programme has been responsible for much of the high visibility on El Niño that the WMO has been able to display. Paul Llanso, Chief of the World Climate Applications Programme at the WMO, noted that the WMO has actively been researching climate change and is also looking at how best to disseminate climate information. More specifically, what can be done with El Niño information? He noted that the WMO has 185 member countries, and data about the atmosphere is archived and shared with others. He suggested that information is not of value unless it is used. He urged that each country case study team maintain contact with its National Meteorological Service for this study.

Alex Alusa (Programme Officer of the Atmosphere Unit of UNEP) greeted the participants on behalf of UNEP's Executive Director, Klaus Toepfer. Alusa provided background to the participants about the project and about the support from the UN Foundation for International Partnerships (UNFIP). He reported on UNEP's role in working with NCAR since at least 1985 on El Niño-related issues, with a focus on socioeconomic aspects of the ENSO cycle. He referred to the UNEP Working Group on socioeconomic aspects associated with El Niño, which has produced several reports, books, and articles with NCAR, as well as supporting several "usable science" workshops related to El Niño. He offered UNEP's support to the country case study team leaders throughout the project.

Glantz introduced NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) to the participants, noting that NCAR has been involved for a long time in bringing climate and society issues together. By climate, Glantz includes change, variability, and extreme events, not just El Niño. It is important to keep climate variability in the forefront. How well does society deal with variability from season to season and year to year? To date, societies do not have a good record. Glantz spoke recently with the Minister for the Environment from a country in sub-Saharan Africa, who asked him to explain El Niño. The minister said that he had heard about it from experts but did not yet understand it. This is not an uncommon response to technical explanations of El Niño. Glantz explained that even simple analogies don't apply exactly; there must be a way to get people to understand the El Niño process. This would be a challenge to this project.

Participants then introduced themselves to the other participants, providing a brief statement about their activities, organizations, and interests.

In the workshop's first presentation, Michael McPhaden (NOAA/PMEL), who oversees the TOGA-TAO Array monitoring system in the tropical Pacific, presented an overview of the 1997-98 "El Niño of the Century." He described both El Niño (anomalous) and normal conditions in the tropical Pacific, with a brief explanation of La Nina, showing Niño3 sea surface temperature comparisons. The TOGA-TAO Array is a major component of the global climate monitoring system, with 70 deep ocean moorings spanning the equatorial Pacific Ocean from 95W in the eastern Pacific to 130E in the west. The Array is supported by an international consortium involving cooperation between France, Japan, Korea, the United States, and Taiwan. The 1997-98 El Niño was the best observed event on record. The two-tiered method of forecasting ENSO is to (1) forecast the tropical Pacific SSTs, then (2) forecast the global climate impacts.

The NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) model made the most use of the data, but did not forecast the intensity of this El Niño. The Lamont-Doherty model (LDEO) did not predict the El Niño event at all, although it had been viewed as the "flagship" El Niño forecast model until this event. Simple statistical models attempting to forecast the 1997-98 El Niño predicted a slight warming. The good news is that there is skill, but it is not yet perfected. There is information on the tropical Pacific that is valuable.

Prior to 1976, the number of El Niño and La Nina events were about equal. Some researchers argue that there has been a climate shift during the past twenty years or so. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) shows that there was a shift in the mid-1970s. The years 1997 and 1998 were the warmest on record, and the annual mean global surface temperature anomalies show a definite warming trend. Lau and Wang (1998) show interannual, decadal, and a basic trend.

The December 1997 sea surface temperatures showed that the Indian Ocean was also very warm (anomalously). The 1997-98 event was the strongest El Niño on record, surpassing in some respects the 1982-82 event, and has been called the El Niño of the century. There were spectacular impacts on global weather and Pacific marine ecosystems, which coincided with the warmest global temperatures on record. Progress in ENSO monitoring and forecasting was highlighted by this event.

The 1997-98 ENSO impacts were interesting, in that many classical impacts were evident in the climate and marine ecosystems, but some expected impacts were (a) absent, (b) moderated, and/or (c) possibly enhanced. However, not all climate anomalies in 1997-98 were because of the El Niño or La Nina events. It is still to be determined what impacts the ENSO extreme events had on individual weather events, such as tornadoes, frosts, or ice storms.

Thursday, 8 July, afternoon session

William Kininmonth, WMO consultant responsible for the preparation of the 1997-98 ENSO Retrospective Assessment, then presented an overview of teleconnections (impacts) of El Niño to other regions around the globe, both in the tropical and extra-tropical areas.

The sea surface temperatures did change markedly in the tropical Pacific. In August 1997 there was a dramatic impact, with a warm pool forming in the eastern Pacific. The atmosphere responded rapidly, as a shift in the location of convection (which followed the warm pool eastward) had a dramatic effect on the atmosphere. Tropical cyclones in the Pacific were more widespread than usual. There was increased cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific and reduced activity in the western Pacific. By January 1998, the sea surface temperature anomaly extended eastward, temperatures were very warm, more than 28 degrees C. There was abundant moisture available to feed storms, and convective activity reached the coastline of southern Ecuador and northern Peru. Cloudiness was reduced over the Philippines and Papua New Guinea, causing reduced precipitation in that part of the Pacific, i.e., droughts.

In October 1997, the Indian Ocean showed equatorial easterly (westward) flowing surface winds, which caused sea surface temperatures to modify and reduced upwelling off the eastern coast of Africa. Later in the year, an SST anomaly pattern had developed, with values reaching 28 degrees C. In Australia, there was significantly more rainfall than expected. In North America, the Pacific jet stream moved farther south, causing California storms and strengthened winter subtropical jet stream and causing floods and a mild winter in the southeastern United States. The lack of cloud cover in the eastern Pacific during February was pronounced, with increased cloudiness over the southeastern United States. In April and later in the season, the patterns persisted and shifted from Mexico to Texas.

In South America, there were coastal summer (Southern Hemisphere) storms and, later, summer floods over the southeast. In the subtropics, there was an increase in cyclogenesis in the Southeast Pacific, consistent with the occurrence of more storms. In October 1997, SST anomalies strengthened the westerlies. In China and India, for example, the El Niño pattern brought expected droughts. But as the winter developed, more rain was seen over the southeast, and very heavy rains fell south of the Yangtse River in China. By the end of winter, rivers were at record-high levels, and temperatures were much warmer than normal.

Thus, it is clear that the global pattern of many of these climate extremes were linked to El Niño. Away from the tropical Pacific Ocean, climate extremes are likely to vary in location and intensity from one event to another. It is important to know how the Atlantic and Indian Oceans respond to El Niño and other factors.

The following issues, concerns, and perspectives were raised during discussion for this session:

• For societal and environmental climate-related impacts, one must be concerned about what is happening with respect to sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. El Niño does not occur in a vacuum.
• There is a need to identify regional climatic conditions at the time of El Niño's various phases.
• What is society's changed level of vulnerability, as well as its level of resilience, at the onset of an El Niño event?
• Attributing specific impacts to El Niño is not a simple task. It requires care, when trying to separate out El Niño's impact from the impacts of other intervening factors. For example, the recent floods in China were blamed at first on El Niño and, later, on decades of deforestation in the upper reaches of the Yangtse watershed. To what extent did the El Niño of 1997-98 influence the occurrence of the devastating ice storms in the Montreal area and eastern Ontario in January 1998?
• The issue of the positive aspects of El Niño events was raised. Some examples were provided, such as an increase in wild shrimp larvae off the coast of Ecuador and the reduction in hurricane activity in the tropical Atlantic. Positive aspects of El Niño should be identified and recorded.
• An up-to-date climate and climate-related impacts history is needed for countries and regions known to be affected by El Niño events.
• The societal and environmental impacts of El Niño will vary in time and space, because of the varying time of onset, frequency, and intensity of El Niño.
• Concern was noted with regard to public understanding (and scientific presentation) of probabilities. El Niño could increase the likelihood of either more or less precipitation. A challenge to researchers is how best to portray probabilities in a way that people can understand what is meant by the information contained in a forecast of a climate anomaly.
• Today, we have more timely details about El Niño's characteristics than ever before. The coupled air-sea models are improving with each event and with heightened research efforts. However, barring a major scientific breakthrough, such global models are in their relatively early stages of development, and researchers are in the early stages of application of information of El Niño and its teleconnections to impacts on environment and society.
• Users must be involved in the development of forecasts as well as the dissemination of forecasts. We must use local input as well to identify risks and vulnerabilities of proposed El Niño-related mitigation tactics.

Rationale for the UNEP/NCAR study

NCAR has held several "Usable Science" workshops, which were designed to identify the various uses of El Niño information. At the workshop held in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, in 1995, we focused on educating educators about the importance of El Niño and its impacts. In Cuba, we looked at El Niño and extreme events. In the North American workshop, we discussed users of the El Niño forecasts in a region directly and indirectly affected by the phenomenon.

Several forecast user groups at that time had little (and in some cases no) direct interest in El Niño (this was in the early to mid-1990s). For example, FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) had been invited to our workshop on ENSO impacts in North America. Only after long periods of no response and a letter to FEMA's director did they send someone to attend at the last minute, someone who was marginally aware of the topic. Until recently, it was a laborious effort to get people to consider El Niño as something they should think about. Now that El Niño is a household word, behavior has changed. We need to capitalize on this newfound awareness and interest in the phenomenon.

The societal impacts of El Niño research need more attention in order to identify strengths and weaknesses in societal responses to El Niño in an objective way. The premise for our country case study is that we can "plan ahead by looking back" at societal responses to previous extreme climate-related events and their society and environmental impacts. We have given this approach a name: forecasting by analogy.

The countries involved in this UNFIP-supported UNEP/NCAR study were each selected for a particular reason or reasons. Papua New Guinea suffered the only El Niño-related drought which also produced a famine. Fiji is viewed as representative of small island states in the Pacific, many of which suffered from drought as a result of the El Niño of 1997-98. Mozambique responded to El Niño-related forecasts of severe drought for southern Africa, only to have had to deal with an adequate supply of annual rainfall. Kenya provides an interesting situation in which there were heavy floods, human health problems, and destruction of its infrastructure. Armed with a forecast of El Niño, what actions were Kenyans able to take? During the 1997-98 event, Ethiopia was wet in some areas, dry in others. Cuba has done a lot of research on El Niño and La Nina effects, as these events affect the frequency in a given season of tropical storms and hurricanes. Peru is the "Republic of El Niño," or "ground zero" for El Niño and, when one hears the phrase "El Niño," one usually thinks immediately of Peru. Ecuador, however, shares the same impacts as Peru but has received much less worldwide attention or sympathy. There have been positive aspects of El Niño in Ecuador as well. The Panama Canal provides a functional case and is interesting, because the water needed to maintain the Canal's operations is drawn from a rain-fed lake, the volume of which is adversely affected by intense El Niño events. Research shows that China has strong teleconnections to El Niño and suffers from drought and flood in different parts of the country during El Niño events. In Costa Rica, decisionmakers were proactive when they learned of an impending El Niño. They sought assistance from the World Bank but did not receive it. Paraguay suffers from flooding during El Niño and provides an opportunity to bring a new set of researchers into El Niño impact studies. The Philippines, like Indonesia, are countries that are worried about either extreme; whether an extreme El Niño or La Nina, they are affected. In addition, Indonesia has been in the news worldwide for all kinds of reasons aside from political changes there: fires and haze problems are linked to El Niño. Was there any mention of the regional haze during the 1982-83 El Niño? Vietnam has been involved in El Niño studies since the early 1990s, and Ninh is creating an Indochina global change network. [Since the Geneva meeting was held, a Bangladesh country case study team has been selected for participation in the UNFIP project.]

Timetable for the Study

The timetable for the study was discussed, as was the need for a "mid-course correction" meeting in early March 2000. The timetable is as follows:

Glantz stressed that NCAR and UNEP will be available to help the team leaders collect needed materials for the country studies.

Research Study Questions

Revision of the research study questions followed a point-by-point discussion of the questions proposed for use as a guide to the study teams. The PI, Core Advisors, and team leaders added to, as well as modified, some of the questions. The list of questions to be addressed by the study teams were finalized as follows, with the realization that each country team may not be able to address to the same extent each question on the list.

Setting

1. What is the socioeconomic setting of your country? (Include a brief description of the government mechanisms for dealing with climate-related impacts; the ministries, task forces, and public safety mechanisms, etc.)
2. What are the climate-related and other natural hazards affecting your country? (List them in order of concern.)
3. What was the level of scentific research in your country relating to El Niño?
4. Identify and document (with citations, if possible) the historical interest, if any, in the country (popular, political, media, etc.) in El Niño before the onset of the forecast and/or impact of the 1997-98 event.

1997-98 Event

1. Trace the flow of information on the 1997-98 El Niño within your country, using the following guidelines:
   1. When did the various agencies first hear about this developing El Niño?
   2. Where did the information come from?
   3. When did they first hear it would be a strong event? From whom?
   4. Which agencies first received the information?
   5. Were these the appropriate agencies to first receive the information?
   6. How was the information obtained?
   7. How was the information transmitted?
   8. How did the media first report the developing El Niño?
   9. How did the media cover the event over time? (Quote headlines, names of radio stations, TV programs, etc., with dates.)
   10. Was the 1997-98 El Niño compared with any previous events?
2. Before the mention of the 1997-98 El Niño, when was the previous mention of El Niño in the media?

Teleconnections (i.e., expected effects of El Niño)

1. What are the scientific views about the existence and the strength of El Niño teleconnections to the country area? [WMO to address this question]
2. If known, what were the climate-related anomalies and impacts in your country of the 1982-83 event?
3. What were the 1997-98 climate-related physical and social impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño in your country? (Include agriculture, health, water supply, migration, etc.)
4. What is the reliability of those attributions?

Responses

1. Were any government reports or statements issued before the impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño appeared?
2. Were any reports issued after the impacts appeared?
3. What were the major responses to the event?
4. Identify (with citations, if possible) the extent of national research (in the last 20 years) in your country on:
   1. El Niño
   2. Climate-related hazards
5. Is there a national plan to respond to disasters? [IDNDR to address this question]
6. Is El Niño explicitly considered to be a disaster in your country? [IDNDR to address this question]
7. Identify (with citations, if possible) any international research about the impacts of El Niño events on your country.

Forecasting by Analogy (i.e., using recent historical examples to plan ahead)

1. If a perfect forecast had been available as early as October 1996 (knowing what is now known about the actual impact), what could have been done differently? (Do not take into consideration at this time any restrictions on possible actions.)
   1. About information flow?
   2. About preparing for the forecast impacts?
2. What are the realistic obstacles that might have prevented these theoretical actions being taken?
3. Can El Niño considerations be added explicitly to national disaster plans?
4. Identify the strengths and weaknesses in the way your country responds to El Niño-related climate anomalies.
5. Did the 1997-98 El Niño have any influence on your country's response to the forecast in early 1998 of an expected La Nina event?

Forecasting by Analogy

Glantz opened this session, noting that forecasting by analogy (FBA) is an approach designed to evaluate societal responses to recent, extreme climate-related events, identifying both the strengths and weaknesses in those responses (Glantz, 1988). He also noted that when this approach was first proposed for identifying possible climate change responses by society, some physical scientists challenged the idea of forecasting societal responses to climate change are too qualitative or too anecdotal for use in scientific research and, therefore, for use in policymaking. However, a close scrutiny of scientific research related to the global warming issue identified the fact that physical scientists, too, are very dependent on the use of analogs and analogical reasoning in their studies (Glantz, 1991).

FBA is based on the premise that, in order to know how well society might prepare itself for the consequences of a future changes in climate (the characteristics of which are unknown), we must identify how well society today copes with the extremes of climate variability and their societal and environmental impacts. Scenarios about the world of the future that are based on events that have occurred within human experience (analogies) have a degree of political and social credibility that computer-generated scenarios lack. If an extreme event occurred once, there is a likelihood (and a statistical probability) that it could happen again. Decisionmakers who have been directly involved in problems generated by climatic anomalies in the recent past have already been using that experience as a guide to dealing with current issues. Those who apply the FBA approach contend that, while the climate of the future may not be like the climate of the present or the recent past, societal responses to extreme meteorological events in the near future will most likely be like those of the recent past and the present. Thus, the purpose of looking at the recent past is to identify how flexible (or rigid) societies are or have been in dealing with climate-related environmental changes and how more effective response mechanisms can be developed. El Niño impacts (with a return period of 3-7 years) provide a way to monitor a country's vulnerability, as well as to accelerate its learning curve for dealing with recurrent extreme climate-related events, whether linked to El Niño or not.

Friday, 9 July, morning session

The Friday morning session was held at the IDNDR Forum at the Geneva Convention Center. Alex Alusa (UNEP) presented an overview of this UNFIP-supported UNEP/NCAR study to the Forum's participants. William Kininmonth (WMO consultant) gave a scientific overview of El Niño and its teleconnections. Glantz (NCAR) presented an overview of the societal aspects of El Niño. A diplomat from Ecuador provided an overview of the UN discussions that led up to the UN General Assembly Resolution on El Niño in November 1997.

The IDNDR representative summarized that the prediction of the El Niño phenomenon during 1997-98 signaled an improving capability for forecasting the impacts of El Niño-related climate variability. As climate variation affects the occurrence of natural hazards, such as drought, heavy rainfall with floods and landslides, and tropical cyclones, this development carries great implications for natural disaster reduction. In advance of El Niño, some communities took preventive action that significantly reduced potential impacts.

Friday, 9 July, afternoon session

Climate Affairs

The workshop reconvened at the WMO building in the afternoon to discuss the notion of "climate affairs." Glantz presented an overview of the climate affairs project, which he termed a capacity-building activity. The notion of climate affairs is being used to build capacity in the case study countries.

There is a growing awareness by societies around the globe of the need for a better understanding of just how climate variability and change (on a variety of time scales from seasons to centuries) affect ecosystems and the affairs of people and governments. Societies have come to realize how their activities (e.g., industrialization and land-use practices) can alter the global atmosphere. An increasing number of government, individual, and corporate decisions are being made for which a knowledge of climate affairs is required.

The purpose of seeking to establish a Climate Affairs Program at universities, colleges, and training centers is to enable students to concentrate some of their educational training in an area of research, application, and policy that centers on climate and climate-related issues. Whether students attain this training by way of a certificate program, a minor course concentration, or as part of a formal university or college program, the students who focus on climate affairs will likely be better prepared to understand how climate affects societies and, conversely, to understand how societies and ecosystems affect climate. These students will, therefore, be better prepared to work in various disciplinary areas (e.g., economics, politics, anthropology, history, sociology, climate and ocean research and forecasting, economic development) and in a wide range of climate-affected economic sectors (e.g., industry, commodities, agriculture, fisheries, mining, insurance, education, health, civil defense, government agencies, disaster prevention and relief).

First-year (1999) funding for climate affairs was given to NCAR by the US National Science Foundation to identify the level of interest in climate affairs as an academic endeavor at various educational institutions. The objective of the first year is to develop a generic guideline for a multidisciplinary climate affairs program or course concentration, which can then be modified to meet the special interests and expertise of the various universities, colleges, and training centers that might wish to develop such an activity for their students. The range of courses must include the physical and biological sciences, as well as the humanities.

The categories are as follows:

• climate science (variability, change, and extreme meteorological events)
• climate impacts (on societies and ecosystems)
• climate policy and law (domestic and international)
• climate ethics (intergenerational equity, discounting the future, and environmental-justice)

The goal of climate affairs courses would be to provide an understanding of:

• how the atmosphere and ocean interact to affect climate
• how the various types of land use affect and are affected by climate
• how human activities might impact the chemistry of the atmosphere
• how decision- and policy-makers at local to international levels might cope with variable and changing climate

These are integral parts of a climate affairs program. The university, college, or training center, however, ultimately decides on the balance among the disciplines that it wishes its climate affairs program to offer. (For more information, see the Climate Affairs Module Program)

Country Case Study Presentations:

Each country team leader made a brief presentation to the workshop participants about the 1997-98 El Niño impacts in the focus of their country case study. Those countries, and the team leaders are as follows:

Papua New Guinea, Joe Barr
Vietnam, Nguyen Huu Ninh
Philippines, Sanny Jegillos
Indonesia, Kamal Kishore
Bangladesh, Ekram Hossain [added after meeting – see web site for information]
Fiji, Atu Kaloumaira
China, Qian Ye

Costa Rica, Jeff Jones
Cuba, Lino Naranjo-Diaz
Ecuador, Pilar Cornejo-Grunauer
Panama Canal, Maria Donoso
Peru, Kenneth Broad and Antonio Zapata-Velasco
Paraguay, Benjamin Grassi

Ethiopia, Tsegay Wolde-Georgis
Kenya, Fredrick Karanja
Mozambique, Gary Littlejohn and Joao-Paulo Borges-Coehlo

Saturday, 10 July, final session

This session served as a review of issues discussed throughout the meeting, as well as some new ones. Several issues discussed included the forecasting by analogy (FBA) approach, climate affairs, research questions, publication of the study's results, the timetable for the project, and the location for the second workshop (mid-course correction). The following paragraphs provide key points raised in this session.

• FBA is a practical way to identify strengths in government and institutional responses to the impacts of extreme climate-related events. It is likely to help researchers identify societal practices and responses that could be improved in the face of future climate-related extreme events. By re-enacting a situation, one might be able to identify more effective and more efficient ways to respond to such events.
• While a set of questions has been provided to the 15 study teams, it is not realistic to expect that each study will be able to answer every question to the same extent. Some teams will have access to more information than others, and some countries will have more information available than others. The questions are meant to serve as a guideline and not a rigid template. Each team will decide how best to identify the information needed to respond to the case study questions: surveys, interviews, library research, workshops, and so forth.
• The ultimate objective of this assessment is not necessarily to make generalizations about societal responses to climate variability, but to identify lessons that can help each of the governments and its citizens to better prepare for future El Niño events.
• The IDNDR representative noted that many countries have national IDNDR committees. He suggested that the country case study leaders contact their country's IDNDR representatives and bring them into the project in the way they think best. Such committees have considerable knowledge of natural hazards in their countries. He noted that these national committees could prove to be an important resource to the project's study teams. At the very least, it would be useful for the team leaders to contact the IDNDR focal points in their country, as these committees have recently become involved in El Niño activities, although they do not necessarily consider El Niño as a natural hazard.
• In this regard, and for other potential in-country contacts, it was suggested that each team leader receive a letter appointing him or her as such. The letter could also serve as a letter of introduction to other groups that they might call upon for support or involvement.
• It was suggested that the project needs a short title, as the original title of the project is too long and cumbersome. Discussion then followed with suggestions about how to label the project. It was suggested that the title be "Impacts and Response Strategies for the 1997-98 El Niño" or "The Societal Impacts of and Responses to the 1997-98 El Niño." This effort to name the project in a few words continues.
• The Core Advisors noted that they are available to assist the case study teams with specific questions that might arise in their areas of expertise. Any concerns or problems from the study teams should be directed to the project's Secretariat at NCAR.
• On a substantive issue, there was concern expressed that the international organizations' role throughout the 1997-98 El Niño should be singled out for special attention. After considerable discussion, it was concluded that each team will identify the key actors that responded to the forecasts and impacts of El Niño, and that among those actors would be various international organizations. For example, in Peru, President Fujimori was a key actor, as was the World Bank; in Papua New Guinea, AusAid proved to be a key actor (among others, of course).
• Also noted in these discussions was the fact that UNEP has assisted NCAR since 1985 in drawing attention to the societal aspects of El Niño. It was suggested that UNEP make its long-standing interest in this phenomenon better known to other agencies and governments. This can be done in part within the framework of this project. Now, many agencies are getting involved in the societal aspects of El Niño by undertaking multidisciplinary projects related to this phenomenon.
• Options for the publication of the project's findings were discussed. The UNU Core Advisor proposed that the final report be published by the UNU Press. This would likely be an edited book with summaries of the country case study findings, in addition to other chapters on the 1997-98 El Niño event. A popular summary could also be prepared, as funds permit. The possibility of training materials will be explored in the form of a CD-ROM, with study reports and other project-related information.
• In addition, a very active web site will be maintained for the UNFIP-supported El Niño impacts and response strategies project. The contact information for each of the country case studies will now be made available on the Web site (at present it is hidden from the general population). Each team leader was asked to review his or her site and to provide information for updates on their activities for the Web site.
• The venue for the next meeting (the mid-course correction workshop) was discussed. It was suggested that Macau might be the location. UNU has a new training and education facility there. The UNU representative offered to pursue this possibility in August. It was agreed that this meeting would best be convened in the Asia-Pacific region, depending on budgetary restrictions.
• The climate affairs notion was discussed again. UNU and NCAR will determine which educational institutions in the 15 case study countries are interested in climate affairs and might be candidates for further discussions about possible course development as part of a capacity-building activity.

The meeting was adjourned at noon.

Glantz, M.H., R.W. Katz, and *N. Nicholls (Eds.). 1991. Teleconnections Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 535 pp.

Glantz, M.H. (Ed.). 1988. Societal Responses to Regional Climatic Change: Forecasting by Analogy. Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, Inc., 428 pp.

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