Fiji Country Case Study:
Impacts and Responses to the 1997-98 El Niño Event
|
Team Leader: Team Members: |
 |
Executive Summary
Country Background
The Republic of Fiji, located in the southwest Pacific Ocean, consists of more than 300 islands (97 of which are inhabited) with a land area of around 18,000 km2. The two major islands (Viti Levu and Vanua Levu), contain over 93% of the approximately 800,000 population, with the remainder widely dispersed to outer islands. Fiji is subject to many types of hazard with arguably the most frequent and severe being tropical cyclones.
The tropical climate of Fiji has distinct wet and dry seasons, and rainfall is strongly affected by predominant southeasterly trade winds, which generally keep the south-eastern portions of the main islands cool and wet, while the western regions are normally much drier.
Since independence, the economy of Fiji has traditionally been based on the export of sugar, with additional income from tourism, other forms of agriculture and mining. Diversification of the economy now means that tourism and light industry (including garment manufacture) are making up significant portions of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Despite this, however, the sugar industry and subsistence agriculture support the majority of the Fijian population. The sugar industry is concentrated in the driest western portions of the islands.
Research on ENSO's Impacts in Fiji
The primary agency for meteorological monitoring, forecasting, and research in Fiji is the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS). This organization has strong professional linkages with equivalent groups in New Zealand (NZ), Australia, and the Pacific ENSO Application Center in Hawaii. Despite having a strong competency in forecasting and monitoring, the FMS does not have the capacity for sophisticated research into the ENSO phenomenon or its extremes in the country. Some statistical comparative studies are made with cyclone occurrences in relation to ENSO events, but no other detailed studies have been carried out.
Due to the disastrous impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño event in Fiji, the government requested the UN Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) Team to assess the effects of the drought and advise on mitigation measures. Following from this UNDP and NZ Overseas Development Assistance sponsored a study on the socio-economic impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño in Fiji and Tonga. In addition to these two studies, a national and a regional workshop were held in Fiji to disseminate study findings and to bring together the various diverse agencies involved in managing El Niño's impacts, particularly droughts.
National planning for disaster response. A National Disaster Management structure within Fiji has been established over the last seven years with the assistance of the South Pacific Disaster Reduction Program (a UNDP initiative in response to the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction). This structure involves both government and NGO groups, with aims of coordinating and improving all aspects of risk management in the country.
Forecasting capacity. The Fiji Meteorological Service has the equipment, skills and contacts to enable forecasting of El Niño conditions up to 12 months before their onset. Forecasting is made using (1) general monthly rainfall pattern analysis, (2) analysis of past ENSO warm and cold events, (3) rain forecast models (both locally- and foreign-developed), and (4) regional prediction models from foreign agencies.
ENSO effects in the Fiji region. Fiji is a country normally affected by frequent tropical cyclones. El Niño events tend to push normal areas of cyclone generation eastward. Hence, during El Niño years, many cyclones tracked to the east of Fiji. The most serious effect of strong El Niño events in the Fiji region is that of reduction in rainfall and eventual drought. However, since Fiji lies within the transition zone of the Southern Oscillation, the effects of El Niño events are not always distinct or predictable. Often there is a significant (4-6 month) delay between El Niño indicators and the onset of damaging drought in Fiji (e.g., in 1982 and 1997), although impacts of El Niño events that begin in the dry season may show up earlier in reduced rainfall (e.g. 1987). Once begun in the western parts of the main islands, El Niño droughts spread first along the northern coasts and eventually to the islands in the southeast of the Fiji group over a period of 6-12 months. Recent El Niño-related drought conditions have lasted for between 12 and 18 months. The El Niño events of 1986-98 and 1997-98 have been associated with the worst droughts recorded in the country.
The 1997-98 El Niño Event
Physical impacts. Two months after the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) dropped below zero, rainfall in Fiji began to decrease from normal levels (May 1997); the decrease in rainfall lasted for 18 months. Islands in the western part of Fiji were first affected by drought conditions in September 1997. The drought then proceeded eastwards. Total rainfalls in northern, central and western areas of Fiji were 22-42% of normal values between February and October 1998. Many sites recorded monthly rainfall of less than 10% of normal values during the middle of 1998. Interior areas of the main Fijian island began to show drought impacts toward the end of 1998, before the drought ended in October.
Socio-economic impacts. A string of six preceding natural disasters since 1992 in Fiji had, through a cumulative effect, stretched the natural coping mechanisms of the Fijian informal sector (extended family and village support systems), and checked the growth of the overall economy. The 1997-98 drought is now known to be the most damaging ever in Fiji, and one of the worst disasters ever to have hit the nation.
Primary Industries
Sugar industry. Sugarcane areas, concentrated in the western and northern parts of the main islands of Fiji roughly correspond to the most drought-prone areas of the nation. The labor-intensive industry is well organized and regulated through a series of districts and sectors, managed by the Fiji Sugar Corporation (FSC). Within the sectors, are 17,500 growers on various scales, mostly family-based small units, many which have other families that depend on the grower for employment and income. The entire industry supports about 25% of Fiji's population, around 200,000 people.
The 1997-98 drought caused a 5% drop in the planted area of sugar cane, but more importantly, of the crop that was left, 25% was wiped out. National production loss was around 50% (c. F$104 million), far greater than had ever occurred in any of the previous six natural disasters (droughts and cyclones). The worst production losses were in the marginal lands, closest to the sea and on steep slopes.
Impacts on 1998 grower income were buffered by pricing protection at three times the market price on sugar exports (under the Lomé Convention). However, 77% of the farmers still received less income, or even none (33%), during the drought. Average farm-dependent family incomes dropped from F$3500 to F$1500 and below. Food gardens, normally supplementary to the lives of these families, were also destroyed in the drought.
Responses in sugarcane areas included supplementary rations, supplied through the government, Red Cross and community organizations. These were targeted to either worst-affected areas or to specific worst-affected farms. NGOs targeted special-needs groups that had been overlooked, including children and lactating mothers. Additional responses included a major government-funded crop rehabilitation program, through which most resources went into replanting sugarcane stocks. Little benefit from this program reached small-holders and farm-laborers.
The needs identified in the sugarcane areas included the following:
- Review relief food criteria and policy.
- Discontinue sugarcane planting on marginal land and, instead, encourage the planting of other tree crops.
- Introduce irrigation to intensify production in some suitable areas.
- Provide grants for drainage maintenance.
- Supply vegetable seeds and rations on a food-for-labor basis.
- Provide access to credit and micro-financing.
Long-term impacts on the sugar industry were avoided because the government provided a large capital boost with the crop rehabilitation program. This enabled a rapid return to production and improved plant stock and fertilization that was already well overdue in many areas.
Other agriculture and forestry. Rural subsistence, although estimated at only 3.8% of GDP, plays a role in the support of 80% of Fiji's population. To increase the economic robustness of communities, in 1995 the government instigated a program to commercially develop selected (but existing) high-value crops. Despite these programs, impacts on subsistence food supply were severe.
Agricultural drought development followed that of the hydro-meteorological drought, from northwest to southeast through the main islands and Fiji Group. At all times production was relatively unaffected in the central and southern windward coastal belt of Viti Levu. Only minor areas of irrigated agriculture exist in the drought-affected zones.
Food security issues that emerged as a result of the drought were monitored from March 1998, although the absence of drought-rating classifications and indices monitoring systems made it difficult to substantiate the large losses thought to exist. In the sugar-cane belt, food crops were completely devastated. Export vegetables and root crops were reduced to 50%, and in the peak production months of June and July no plantings were possible and planting materials were often wiped out. The secondary hazard of wildfires, particularly in the north of Fiji, damaged up to 40% of cultivated crops and up to 10% of the native forest – removing an additional source of supplementary food.
Livestock fatalities in the nation's 28,000 cattle and 190,000 small ruminants had begun by the end of the drought. Around 55% of these animals are kept on small holdings in the drought-affected areas. Pastures were destroyed and supplementary feed for livestock was unavailable. During the drought, the instances and extent of forest fires were greater than normal and forest crops in several areas with thin topsoil were severely damaged. In addition, the fisheries sector noted an increase in lower-value species in catch composition during the El Niño event, although this recovered following its end.
Responses in this sector included a rehabilitation program begun in May 1998, targeting food security. This involved establishing "stock" farms of planting material in strategic areas both within and outside of drought-prone locations. The UN FAO provided seed material and project funds following its own assessment, the Foundation of the Peoples of the South Pacific (FSP Fiji) targeted boarding-school plantations with its assistance.
The needs identified in this sector included the following:
- Meet food and planting material shortages through low-technology means.
- Address the long-term food supply issues of malnutrition and anemia.
- Re-develop education and awareness programs targeted at food security.
- Establish a drought-rating classification and identify reliable indicators.
- Establish databases and disaster management plans for this sector.
Medium- to long-term impacts have been slight, and long-term impacts were mostly confined to the tree-crop sector (pine, cocoa and coconuts). Despite these impacts, some aspects of the drought proved to be of positive benefit to the production in the forest industry, enabling improved access to logging areas. Other medium-term impacts included improved grazing pastures in many areas that were in need of re-establishment.
Water supply and hygiene. Metered water in Fiji is derived entirely from surface sources and supplied to urban areas, covering up to 70% of the population. Rural supplies are derived from surface sources, in addition to local wells and roof-rainfall-catchment systems. There tends to be very little storage capacity in rural systems, because rainfall is generally high and well distributed throughout the year.
Water-supply shortages affected both urban and rural systems in drought areas, and schools were particularly badly affected. This resulted from both inadequacies in rural storage systems and the poor maintenance and networking of metered systems. Groundwater was more extensively utilized in some areas where operational boreholes were located.
Over 33% of all drinking water samples collected during the drought by UNDAC were biologically unsafe for consumption, and there was little follow-up with remedial action based on these results. Hygiene standards dropped further where flush-toilet systems could not be operated and greater use was made of pit-latrines and communal facilities because of the new El Niño-related drought situation. In addition, due to a greater consumption of packaged food, a sharp increase in litter was noted.
One response to water shortages was government-funded water deliveries (by truck or boat) to all affected areas, beginning in some areas in October 1997. This cost up to F$190,000 per month. The Ministry of Health initiated the construction of pit latrines in schools, along with other measures promoted during an awareness and education campaign.
Needs identified in the water sector included the following:
- A nation-wide education and awareness program targeted at improving and maintaining roof-fed water supply and storage systems.
- Provision of assistance to sustainably develop further groundwater resources.
- Rapid implementation of urban water-supply master plans.
- Development and enforcement of guidelines for biological water monitoring and remediation.
- Development of alternative sources of water for some areas, e.g. solar-distillation plants.
There were no significant long-term impacts to this sector from the drought, although it was considered that the government supply of water to the needy during drought exacerbates dependency in the community, and encourages indifference to the improvement and maintenance of local water supply systems.
Health and Nutrition. The Ministry of Health identified the onset of a potentially dangerous situation toward the end of the drought, indicating sporadic increases in health and social problems. Remote and poorer rural areas experienced the greatest adverse health impacts. Malnutrition increased in the poorer rural areas, due to the failure of domestic gardens; the drought exacerbated existing chronic malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies. These included a high rate of anemia observed in lactating mothers. Sanitary standards decreased because of the lack of water, forcing the relocation of some households and increasing social discomfort in most others (i.e., a misery factor).
The sugarcane belt encompassed the worst affected areas, with babies, lactating mothers and the elderly being greatest impacted by infantile diarrhea, malnutrition and dietary deficiency. Major contributing factors were the poor quality of delivered drinking water, loss of domestic gardens and insufficient income to purchase alternative food.
Drought response included government emergency food and water provisions to affected families, supplemented by donor NGO and international agency contributions of food, planting materials, and cash. Around 250,000 people were provided with various rations, although in many cases, the rations were nutritionally deficient (particularly in Iron), having been designed for the short period of relief required following cyclones. There were no health strategies on a national scale. Health interventions are normally made on a case-by-case basis through doctor consultations. Hence, many cases probably went undiagnosed and therefore untreated.
Short-term needs identified in the Health and Nutrition sector included the following:
- A national awareness program to target micronutrient deficiencies, particularly for women of childbearing age.
- Multisectoral support to the Fiji Plan of Action for Nutrition, targeted to improve food security.
- Strengthening of aspects of food security and feeding practices in Agriculture and Health extension programs, respectively.
- Consideration and development of standards for nutritional requirements with respect to future drought rations.
There were no apparent long-term impacts on infectious disease or low birth weight, although it is considered that these would have shown up if the drought had lasted much longer.
Education. Most schools suffered water supply problems, which resulted in unsanitary conditions where flush-toilet systems failed. In addition, many boarding schools suffered from loss of food gardens, and some were closed due to poor preparation for the likely drought impacts. School absenteeism increased because parents could not provide bus fare or food for lunch.
Response in this sector was spearheaded by a number of NGOs, supplying food, bus fares and other forms of assistance.
The main needs identified in the education sector were as follows:
- Develop adequate water supply and storage systems.
- Develop strategies to maintain school gardens under drought conditions.
Long-term impacts were difficult to quantify, including whether absenteeism would affect future performance and whether antisocial habits were developed during periods of absenteeism.
National economy. The 1997-98 drought was classified as the most catastrophic natural disaster to hit Fiji in the twentieth century. Negative impacts on the sugar sector were not made up for by growth in other sectors during this time. The economy was driven into recession, reducing GDP in 1997 by 3%, and in 1998 by a further 5% (against a background of 3% average annual growth over the previous five years). The rapid recovery of the sugar industry helped to minimize the drought's long-term impacts, which should be insignificant in 3-4 years.
Prices remained stable throughout the drought. The lack of disposable income and the availability of government food rations in affected sectors subdued demand. Interest rates were also not affected, with a major devaluation masking any drought impacts. There were short-term impacts on wages and employment, but this quickly returned to normal following a bumper crop in 1999.
Income was worst affected in around 17,000 households, directly reliant on sugar, with a further 93,000 households that were able to supplement income from other sources. Subsistence agriculture was also affected, mostly impacting the poorest sectors of the community.
Response to the 1997-98 ENSO
Statements. Before the actual impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño, the FMS suggested a possible emerging El Niño condition in its April 1997 monthly weather summary, acting on advice from the Bureau of Meteorology of Australia. By June 1997, the FMS indicated the possibility of a significant drought. No further response from key agencies was made to these warnings because of a general state of unpreparedness and a lack of understanding of meteorological terminology.
During and after impact, several drought-specific reports were released by the FMS to key government agencies. The government declared a state of emergency and dispatched senior administrators to assess and coordinate response needs. Assistance in assessment was requested from UNDP when damages exceeded the capacity of the nation to cope.
Major activities
- Coordination of relevant scientific organizations in Fiji to provide more information to the public and the government.
- Declaration of a State of Emergency.
- Provision of emergency food and water rations by the government, with additional assistance from donors, international organizations and NGOs. Food was supplied to about 250,000 people at a cost of F$3.3 million/month, and water supplied to >50% of the population, costing a further F$0.5 million.
- NGO and community-based organizations were active in food and cash assistance to school children as well as setting up public appeals.
- The Public Works Department established additional groundwater supplies.
Conclusions
- Disaster impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño-related drought were on the verge of snowballing before its end, but the sugarcane Crop Rehabilitation Program was highly effective in aiding a rapid economic recovery.
- The drought highlighted the need for active cooperation among disaster managers, water users, and meteorologists to develop effective and timely forecasting and early warning systems. At least a 6-12 month lead time is required by communities to prepare. Good linkages with media organizations are required to achieve this.
- Key agencies need to develop drought-response strategies in the form of timely alleviation plans.
- Information supply needs to be increased with the establishment of drought indices and key monitoring strategies to assess El Niño-related drought impacts on all sectors. Health information was particularly difficult to interpret in the context of the 1997-98 El Niño.
- Awareness and education programs are required to assist communities in drought preparedness and response.
- For water management there needs to be (1) an improvement in household self-reliance, (2) better management of reticulated systems, (3) identification and sustainable exploitation of groundwater resources, (4) more active management of catchment systems, including changes induced by production (commercial) forestry, and (5) assessment of the vulnerability of water sources.
- To protect income and production there needs to be (1) an improved understanding of drought-tolerant crops and how to manage them, and (2) procedures for either moving affected stock from affected areas or providing supplementary feed.
Policy Implications
Understanding ENSO's extremes. There is a general lack of understanding of the effects and indicators of ENSO and other climate anomalies on community vulnerability. The appropriateness of rainfall data to indicate drought was particularly unsuited to Fiji. A more appropriate method would be to define classes of drought, such as the following:
- Meteorological drought – based on rainfall parameters, but not useful in itself to water users.
- Hydrological drought – based on river levels; in the Fiji ENSO-hydrology study this provides a better indicator of available water resources.
- Agricultural drought – based on crop yield and production, provides a direct indicator of meteorological drought on agricultural production.
- Socio-environmental impacts of drought – includes parameters such as an increase in social crimes, deterioration in health and living standards, etc.
For these measures to be useful, there needs to be more background research into their utility during past El Niño-related droughts.
Individual sector level implications. Commonalities in policy needs for all sectors include the following:
- Public education and awareness programs
- Organizational plans for drought situations
- Review of legislation
- Strengthening of Information Management Systems
Water resources and the environment
- A concerted effort is needed to develop a national water-resource plan including sources and sinks to link with drought management plans and irrigation schemes.
- Remote sensing tools need to be applied to produce vulnerability maps and to monitor use and conservation of water resources.
- Rainfall data need to be converted into other indicators of drought that are more meaningful to key agencies and the public, i.e., more "user friendly."
- The policy of supplying emergency water on demand needs to be reviewed to avoid developing a "culture of dependence."
Food and nutrition
- Background levels of malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies exist in many parts of the country. These issues need to be addressed if drought impacts on human health are to be alleviated.
- Policies to alleviate these issues need to be based at the community level and need to coordinate partnerships among agencies such as agriculture, community health and nutrition, district-level development, and other community-based organizations.
- Government-supplied rations should be changed to more effectively alleviate malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies, particularly when long-term supplements are planned.
- Given that forecasts are available, promotion of traditional food-preservation practices should be carried out, and possibly supplemented by income-generation promotion from these activities.
- A long-term measure would be to investigate the micronutrient supplementing of food resources, as is already being carried out with iron in flour.
Agriculture
- Strategic and tactical planning for drought can alleviate some of a drought's impacts on agriculture, using existing policies.
- Since the largest impact of the El Niño-related drought was on the sugar industry, and this in turn caused the greatest human suffering, acceleration of the crop diversification program for Fiji is required.
- Land-zoning policies should also be developed and enforced to encourage suitable uses of land considered marginal for sugar production.
- Infrastructure and policies need to be developed to support small-livestock holdings with supplementary feed supplies, perhaps involving molasses from local sugar mills.
Meteorology, planning and other services
- To improve the value of forecasting more dialogue is needed with El Niño forecasters and end users in order to review terminology in use.
- The Fiji Meteorological Service should be proactive in improving the understanding and predictability of ENSO events and their impacts.
- Drought vulnerability and risk maps should be prepared as planning tools.
- Nationwide education of the ENSO cycle and its effects needs to be strengthened.
- Policies on school placement, transport, water and food supplies in times of El Niño-related water shortages need to be reviewed.
- Minimum housing standards require review, focusing on self-sufficiency and integrity of water supplies.
- Provision of micro-finance in rural areas needs to be investigated.
National policy considerations
- Drought monitoring indicators need to be established and researched, particularly in areas of health, education and social issues. These indicators need to better quantify drought's long-term impacts.
- Economic mitigation and prevention strategies for droughts should be put in place rapidly, considering the major negative impacts that the 1997-98 events had on the country's economy.
- Working definitions of drought need to be established, to define medium and long-term impacts and the cost and benefits of mitigation strategies.
Lessons Learned
The following are some additional key lessons learned from how Fiji responded to the 197-98 El Niño-related drought.
Applied Research
The 1997-98 drought was a wake-up call to disaster managers and water users in the country to work more closely with meteorologists and to develop drought forecasting just as it has been done for cyclones. Our study revealed that Fiji was in some sense fortunate in that the drought broke early as disaster impacts were just on the verge of rapidly worsening. As it happened, the measures taken by the whole nation were sufficient to help contain the economic and social distress caused by the drought. The Sugarcane Crop Rehabilitation Program was most effective in returning economic recovery of the nation.
Damages can be minimized if drought victims and disaster managers have reliable and accurate drought-forecast information to guide preparedness and relief responses. The Fiji Meteorological Service provided a drought forecast in May 1997. However, the information users hardly responded, most probably because of the difficulties to utilize information that was provided in meteorological terms. Nevertheless, the present level of forecasting skill in Fiji is quite high.
Information Management
The paucity of socio-economic data has been a major problem in assessing the impacts of past El Niño disasters. Such data are needed to assist researchers in making cost-benefit (economic) analyses of long-term prevention, mitigation, or adaptation measures. A good example of this situation is with health statistics, which showed increases in skin and nutrition-related diseases during the drought. However, it was hard to segregate this information according to contributions of individual hazards that had hit Fiji during the last six years of the 1990s.
The UNDP study (running concurrently with this study) tried to develop a methodology for assessing drought impacts.
In summary, some of the key lessons to be learned from the 1997-98 El Niño-related drought are the following:
- Planning
- Effective drought-response strategy
- Better dissemination of forecasts
- Education of communities about appropriate responses to drought
- Appropriate and timely drought-impact alleviation plans
- Water and Environment
- Improved household self-reliance for drinking water
- Better management of the reticulated water system
- Identification and mapping of groundwater resources
- Clearer understanding of the impacts of pine plantations on stream flow
- More active management of various watersheds
- Income and Production
- Improved understanding of drought-tolerant crops
- Better understanding of where and when to plant
- Procedures for moving livestock out of the expected drought-affected areas
- Forecasting and Early Warning Systems
- Simple housekeeping chores are still the best response actions and basic first-mitigation responses
- Strengthen the working relations among meteorologists, water managers, and disaster managers
- Undertake assessments of the vulnerability to drought of water sources such as wells, streams and roof catchments
- Users require at least 6-12 months lead time to purchase materials
- Establish good linkages and understanding with the media
The most effective mitigation strategy is to prepare, issue, and publicize timely El Niño- and drought-related forecasts. If properly warned, most people will take action to minimize the impacts of a potential disaster as best they can with available resources.
