***NEW PUBLICATION! ***

HEADS UP! EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS FOR
CLIMATE, WATER AND WEATHER

Many early warning systems (EWSs) are in operation today to warn the general public, governments, and businesses such as insurance companies or grain producers about impending climate, water, and weather-related hazards, along with other natural and human-made threats. The experiences and insights identified in the use around the globe of EWSs can help to inform officials and other decision makers in various organizations about how to prepare and communicate effective early warnings.

Sharing experiences and insights identified in the use of EWSs can also help to educate the media and the general pubic about how to interpret warnings and apply them to their own local needs.

The purpose of this publication is to identify ways to make early warnings of potential "threats" to society and the environment more useful, usable, credible, and reliable.

Published in 2007 by the Tsinghua University Press in Beijing, China, this publication has been edited by Dr. Michael H. Glantz, Director of the Center for Capacity Building (CCB) in the SERE Lab at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. More than a dozen researchers have contributed sections to the book.

Table of Contents

Introduction
Interest in Early Warning
The Precautionary Principle as an Early Warning
The Future Has Arrived Earlier the Predicted
What Constitutes an Early Warning System?
Threats
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Constraints Assessment
Perception of the Role of EWSs
The Reality of the Role of EWSs
Surprises
Early Warning System FAQ
Forecast Warning Terminology
Geographic Information Systems

Climate, Water and Weather Related Hazards
Hurricanes
Severe Winter Storms
Superstorm '93: North America and the Caribbean
Are Seasons of Superstorms a Possibility?
Heat Waves
European Heat Wave 2003
Tornadoes
Nor'easters
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Vector-Borne Disease
Severe Weather
Fire Danger Index
Anatomy of Australian Bush Fires
Air Pollution in Metropolitan Areas
Dust and Sandstorm Early Warning

Too Much, Too Little
Floods
China's 1998 Great Yangtze River Floods
Flash Floods
Thunderstorms
Drought
NOAA's Palmer Drought Severity Index
Drought in Africa
Australia Monitoring for Drought Early Warning
Drought in Latin America

Global Warming
Global Warming
The Polar Regions: A "Place" as an Early Warning about Global Warming
Coral Reef Bleaching
Sea-Level Rise
Integrated Vector Management

Earth Hazards
Tsunamis
Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004
Volcano Early Warning Systems
Space Weather
U.S. Ultraviolet Forecasts

Concluding Thoughts
Foreseeability of Hazards
Lessons Learned about "Lessons Learned"

References
Essential References for Early Warning Systems